A second project involving our faculty member Prof. Dr. Tolga Görüm, focusing on the 6 February earthquakes, has received support from NASA. The project aims to advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying cascading earthquake hazards by focusing on the severe 14–15 March 2023 floods that occurred after the earthquakes.
Following the initial project—during which data were collected from the region affected by the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes, a database was created, and preliminary tests were conducted—the second project has secured NASA funding with a budget of USD 594,000. The project is titled “Earth Surface Model Investigation of Cascading Earthquake Hazards augmented by field and remote sensing observations.”
The researchers aim to employ Earth surface dynamics models as a numerical laboratory to investigate the impacts and formation of cascading hazards triggered by the earthquake, with a particular focus on the 14–15 March floods, which constitute the core subject of the project. Landslide models and hydrological models will be used within the study, and the analysis of satellite imagery will also form a significant component.
Floods triggered by half of the annual precipitation falling in just two days
The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 in Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş affected approximately 500,000 km2 and stand among the most significant events in the region’s history. These earthquakes also triggered 3,600 seismic landslides.
Due to an event known as an Atmospheric River, half of the region’s annual precipitation fell within two days (14–15 March 2023) following the earthquake. This precipitation mobilized the soil and other debris deposited by landslides in the mountainous areas. As this sediment and large boulders filled river channels, the intensity of flooding increased in downstream settlements. The floods caused severe damage to infrastructure and resulted in 21 fatalities.
The NASA-supported project seeks to answer the following questions: Could the 14–15 March floods, triggered by an atmospheric river following the earthquakes, have been predicted? Could proactive planning have reduced vulnerability? Might this event signal a series of similar sediment transport events? Can sediment-laden floods capable of causing major disasters be mitigated? How can post-earthquake landscape rehabilitation reduce the risks of subsequent geological hazards?